Nuclear has an important role to play in a decarbonized energy system

When the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its latest report last August, it explained that climate change is “unequivocally” humans fault, it is happening faster than we thought, impacting every area of the globe, and world carbon dioxide levels are at an all-time high.¹ But it also provided that if the world undertakes strong and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the impacts of climate change can be limited.  

Decarbonization is not going to be an easy task. The electricity sector itself accounts for about 25 percent of global emissions, with fossil fuel providing the majority of electricity generated globally.² At the same time the world needs to decarbonize the energy sector, there will also be huge upticks in demand—with the Energy Information Agency estimating a 50 percent increase in world energy use by 2050.³ There are also nearly a billion people in the world without access to electricity.⁴

As we decarbonize the electricity sector, we also need to make sure we have reliable power. Ironically, abnormal weather conditions—such as the kind we keep seeing linked to climate change—can lead to elevated risks to the grid—affecting both generation and demand, as well as causing energy shortages that lead to energy emergencies. Last year’s power outage in Texas, caused by a cold snap, shows the devastating impacts that can occur when the lights go out—that event left 4.5 million households without power in freezing temperatures, resulted in over 100 deaths, and caused an estimated loss of US$155 billion in economic damages.⁵

While new technologies are needed to help combat climate change—such as advanced battery storage systems to pair with intermittent renewables like wind and solar—nuclear power provides a strong tool for decarbonization, while also providing reliable, base-load power, and energy security and independence. For example—

• Nuclear power is currently the second largest source of low carbon power globally (behind hydro), making up 10 percent of the world’s electricity, and in some countries, making up a large part of their clean energy. For example, in the U.S., nuclear power currently provides over 50 percent of clean energy generation. There are about 441 nuclear reactors in operation in some 30 countries. There are also 55 reactors under construction in 19 countries (including China, India, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates) that are equivalent to approximately 15 percent of existing capacity.⁶
• Nuclear is a zero-emission source of energy during operation, it is energy dense, and with smaller environmental impact than commonly perceived when compared to other power sources. The U.N. Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) recently released a report, “Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options” analyzing the environmental profiles of the full lifecycle of various technologies in order to evaluate their “all in” environmental costs—such as greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), human toxicity, water use, and other environmental and health metrics of different electricity sources—including wind, solar, coal, gas, hydro, and nuclear. In a finding that may be very surprising to many, nuclear had some of the smallest impacts on the environment out of all the electricity sources analyzed. ⁷
• With most existing plants operating for about 18-24 months on one fuel load, and some advanced reactors intended to operate 24 hours a day/seven days a week for as long as 20 years without refueling, nuclear power does not rely on the weather (like solar or wind), or constant fuel shipments (like coal, gas, and hydrogen) to operate, making it an attractive option for countries looking to increase their energy independence and security.
• Next generation advanced reactors, are on the brink of deployment, showing that both existing nuclear technologies and emerging nuclear technologies can play a key role in the energy transition away from fossil fuels,⁸ as well as provide process heat to reduce carbon emissions in other sectors, like heavy industry.
• The world also appears to be on the brink of commercializing fusion power.⁹ Fusion, the process that powers the Sun, has long been seen as the “holy grail” of energy production. Whereas nuclear reactors split atoms apart to release energy, fusion facilities push them together. A key trait that both nuclear and fusion share is the ability to produce immense amounts of electricity without emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, but fusion also has the added benefit of not producing high level nuclear waste.

But for a variety of reasons, including challenges around the high capital cost, cost overruns and delays on projects around the globe, and public perception—particularly in certain places, like Germany—nuclear power is often overlooked in the energy transition discussion. But in order to meet global emissions reductions targets, organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) believe the rise in available technologies and emissions reductions options are dictated by policy decisions that must be made now in order to put nuclear “back on track.”¹⁰

The UK is among the countries with a clear nuclear policy, with the government saying nuclear power “provides a reliable source of low-carbon electricity” and is pursuing large-scale nuclear while also looking at modular reactor types.¹¹ The Government has committed to bring at least one large scale nuclear project to the point of a final investment decision in 2024.

In Europe, the European Commission’s Joint Research Council is supporting the inclusion of nuclear energy in the EU taxonomy, which sets out the conditions, including environmental objectives, that an economic activity has to meet in order to qualify as environmentally sustainable. Inclusion in the taxonomy will give nuclear projects access to clean energy financing.¹² This, alongside the potential breakthroughs in SMR technology, will help the nuclear industry find solutions to many of the funding challenges it faces. And a number of European countries are planning on building or exploring building new plants. For example, France, which already generates about 70 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, recently announced plan to build up to 14 more reactors.¹³

Asia is the main region in the world where electricity generating capacity generally is growing significantly, as well as reliance on nuclear power—with the most new reactors planned. In Asia there are about 137 operable nuclear power reactors, 34 under construction and firm plans to build more than 50 more.¹⁴ The greatest growth in nuclear generation is expected in China. China’s 13th Five-Year Plan,¹⁵ which covered the period 2016-2020, outlined a target of 58GW generated by nuclear power (China fell just short of this target with 51GW of power generated.)¹⁶Under the 14th Five-Year Plan, six to eight new nuclear plants are planned per year, with an aim to construct 110GW by 2030.¹⁷

In the U.S., nuclear energy is well established—with just under 100 reactors in operation, and several ventures planning to submit applications for new reactors in the near term. The Infrastructure Act, passed into law in November 2021, included a $6B credit program to ensure economically troubled plants could continue to stay in operations and provide carbon free power.¹⁸ The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) just announced the implementation of this program. DOE is also supporting 10 advanced reactor projects under the new Advanced Reactor Demonstration (ARDP) program. Two ARDP awardees are set to receive a combined US$3.2 billion in funding for full-scale commercial advanced reactor projects that are expected to be operational by the end of 2027, beginning of 2028.¹⁹

The most growth in nuclear is expected to be in countries with established nuclear programs, but there are also a large number of countries in Europe, Southeast Asia, South America, and Africa looking at developing programs. The extent to which these projects may be pursued will likely depend on their successful deployment—on time and on budget—in established nuclear energy countries first.²⁰

The IEA maintains that recognition of nuclear energy’s attributes and its importance in decarbonizing the world’s energy systems would encourage policymakers to explicitly include nuclear in their long-term energy plans. Given the positive, long-lasting and deep impacts of a nuclear programme on a country’s economy and electricity system, says the IEA, governments must consider nuclear projects as national infrastructure projects of strategic importance.

Authored by Alex Harrison, Amy Roma, and Malcolm Parry.

References

1 See IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, “AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis” (Aug. 9, 2021).

2 See Environmental Protection Agency, “Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data”; Our World Data, “Electricity Mix” (2021).

3 U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Today in Energy” (Sept. 19, 2019).

4 IEA, Data Projections, “Access to Electricity” (2020).

5 Energy Research & Social Justice, Volume 77, “Cascading Risks: Understanding the 2021 Winter Blackout in Texas” (July 2021,)

6 See World Nuclear Association, “Nuclear Power Today” (last updated Feb. 2022).

7 See UN Economic Commission for Europe, “Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Options” (2021)

8 See, e.g.,Fox Business, “Wyoming town hopeful Bill Gates’ TerraPower nuclear plant will help replace 200-plus coal-related jobs” (Jul. 21, 2021); World Nuclear News, “NuScale signs agreement with new Polish partners to replace coal” (Sept. 24, 2021). Bloomberg, “Boris Johnson Plans Fossil Fuel-Free U.K. Power Grid by 2035” (Oct. 4, 2021).

9 See Hogan Lovells New Nuclear blog, “The Regulation of Fusion – A Practical and Innovation-Friendly Approach” (Feb. 14, 2020).

10 See IEA, “World Energy Model” (2021); IEA, “Nuclear Power” (2021).

11 U.K. Government Energy White Paper, “Powering our Net Zero Future” (Dec. 2020).

12 European Commission, JRC Science for Policy Report “Technical assessment of nuclear energy with respect to the ‘do no significant harm’ criteria of Regulation” (EU) 2020/852, Joint Research Centre (2021).

13 CNN, “France announces plans to build up to 14 nuclear reactors” (Feb. 11, 2022).

14 World Nuclear Association, “Asia's Nuclear Energy Growth” (last updated Jan. 2022)

15 Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, “The 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of The People’s Republic of China ” (2016-2020).

16 Power Technology, “Three key points for power generation from China’s five-year plan,” (Mar. 9, 2021).

17 IEA, “Nuclear Power” (2021).

18 See Hogan Lovells New Nuclear blog, DOE Implements $6B Civil Nuclear Credit Program set forth in Infrastructure Act for Operating Nuclear Power Plants” (Feb. 23, 2021)

19 U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy “ Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program.”

20 World Nuclear Association, “Emerging Nuclear Energy Countries” (last updated Jan. 2022).